S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 E-mini The contract fell slightly in Wednesday’s trading session as we wait for the CPI numbers. At this point, it’s quite logical that we could see some negativity, mainly because the CPI numbers will almost certainly favor Fed tightening. That being said, there is almost always some type of narrative on Wall Street to drive stocks up, at least for the minute. Remember, Wall Street’s job is to sell you stocks. In other words, follow the money.
We are in a bear market and have been for a while. Moreover, the economic numbers are not improving, so there is no real reason to think that the stock market should take off. For this reason, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see this market fall back to the 3750 level, followed by the 3700 level. The 3600 level below is an important support level, and breaking it would obviously send a thrill in the market as it would be a crash through support.
On the upside, the colder than expected CPI figure could knock out the perma-bulls and push this market above the 3900 level. At this point, it is almost certain that we will test the 4000 level. The level 4000 is an area that also includes the 200 day EMA run towards it, so I think there is a lot going on in this area that would make it difficult to top. All things being equal, this is a market that I like the rallies that fade, so the CPI number may give me that opportunity.
Video of the US stock market forecast from 10.11.22
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