S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Take a Break Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 moved back and forth during Thursday’s session as we sit just below the 200-day EMA, and of course we have to worry about Friday’s job count. That being the case, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we have an explosive movement. All things being equal, one would assume that this resistance should hold, but if we were to break above the 4200 level, we could see the S&P 500 really take off. It’s not my base case scenario, but it’s something I need to keep in mind as I trade this.

Below, I believe the 4100 level is crucial. Should we fall below this level, we could see a much deeper correction. At this point, we probably lose around another 100 points and look to the 50-day EMA.

Unfortunately, this is all a matter of perception and whether or not the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy even more aggressively. The market doesn’t believe the Fed has the ability to do it, when the Fed swears it does. If we get a hotter than expected jobs number out of America on Friday, it’s very possible that we could see stock markets dip a bit as traders will see this as another reason the Federal Reserve will grant a particular attention. to its monetary policy, perhaps giving it an additional reason to tighten. Either way, I think we’re a little overdone in the short term, but always keep an eye out for the other direction.

Video of the US stock market forecast from 05.08.22

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