Dow Jones, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, Euro, PFN, Chinese PMI

Global market sentiment was mixed last week. Strong gains were seen on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones gaining around 2.3% and 0.33% respectively. Equities in Europe were mixed, with the FTSE 100 rising 1% while the DAX 40 fell 0.74%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 climbed 5.6% while the Hang Seng was relatively flat.

In some surprise, sentiment improved despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door to a 50 basis point increase in meetings if needed. He also played down worries about a recession in 2023. The US dollar was mixed, outperforming the euro and the pound. The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand dollars outperformed.

It was a dismal week for the anti-risk Japanese yen. Rising Treasury yields continue to erode the attractiveness of the JPY in a world where the Bank of Japan remains dovish against its major peers. Commodity prices have skyrocketed. WTI crude oil gained 7.7% while gold climbed 1.7%. Other metals, such as aluminum and iron ore, gained 7% and 4.7% respectively.

Economic event risk returns in the coming week, with the US record busy. High-profile event risks in this part of the world include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and nonfarm payrolls. Traders will be watching closely as price pressures continue to work their way through the economy, opening the door for a more hawkish central bank.

Outside of the world’s largest economy, China will release the March manufacturing PMI. Concerns have risen about a slowdown in China, which could have significant consequences for global growth. Eurozone inflation data will also cross the wires, possibly leaving the European Central Bank in a tough spot, having to choose between economic fallout from Ukraine or mounting price pressures. What else is in store for the markets in the coming week?


Fundamental forecasts:

Aussie Dollar Fundamental Forecast: AUD/USD eyes economic data as RBA bull bets rise

AUD/USD takes aim at economic data releases this week after the currency rallied amid rising commodity prices and a rebound in market sentiment. Will the data impress enough to boost already-rising bets on the RBA’s rate hike?

Euro Fundamental Forecast: EUR/USD Clings to 1.1000, Inflation Data Closes in

The latest look at inflation data from Germany and the Eurozone next week could be decisive for the single currency as it struggles to hold its own against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD weekly forecast: GBP/JPY spiral will continue until the end of the month

BoE rate expectations remain aggressive, GBP/JPY rise will persist until the end of the month.

Gold price targets yearly high with US PCE price index at hand

Data printouts from the US could fuel the recent advance in the price of gold as the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation is set to rise for the sixth consecutive month.

Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, S&P 500 forecast: 2-week winning streak at risk as PCE and NFP approach

The Nasdaq 100 had its best 2-week rise since the dot com collapse in the early 2000s, followed by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. The road ahead remains rocky with US PCE and Nonfarm Payrolls data front and center.

Technical forecasts:

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Breakdown Has Yearly Bottom in Focus

USD/CAD is moving after dropping below support, the next big level to watch is the yearly low.

US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Price Action Signals Further Near-Term Strength

The DXY index appears to be developing a double bottom formation, which is sometimes seen as a bullish continuation pattern. Confirmation could set the stage for the next step higher.

Gold Forecast (XAU/USD): A Spontaneous Breakout Could Be Short-lived

Gold’s rather unusual breakout at the end of the week came as a surprise after the bearish pennant was invalidated, however, gold is hitting a severe resistance zone

Bitcoin, Ethereum Weekly Predictions: BTC/USD, ETH/USD Key Levels

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise alongside stocks, pushing them to key technical levels. Will cryptocurrency continue to rise?

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Price Forecasts: are the bears back in hibernation?

It was a solid week for equities, even with a set of risks on the horizon. Are the bears over here or are we preparing for something bigger?

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